Novak Djokovic's rankings collapse has been confirmed – here's why it matters

11/07/2024 11:43 AM

The scale of Novak Djokovic’s rankings collapse will be rubbered stamped at the end of the ATP Finals in Turin – and it could be hugely significant for his hopes heading into 2025.

Djokovic’s decision to withdraw from the ATP Finals ensured his rapid rankings fall was inevitable, and his move to withdraw from the Paris Masters last month added to his decline.

The 1,000 points he won at last year’s Paris Masters dropped off his rankings total on Monday and now the live rankings have confirmed the 1,300 points he claimed from his ATP Finals win last year have been removed from his total in the live rankings.

While Djokovic has insisted rankings are no longer a concern for him at this belated stage of his career, the harsh reality of his move to become a part-time tennis player in the final months of his career could undermine his hopes of adding to his record-breaking collection of Grand Slam titles next year.

Djokovic is down to No 6 in the live ATP Rankings and that fall is likely to continue heading into the final tournament of the year.

The ATP Finals in Turin offers bumper rankings points and with Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur just a few points behind Djokovic in the rankings, all three have a chance to leap ahead of the Serbian in Turin.

That could demote Djokovic down to No 9 in the ATP Rankings and while that may not give the Serbian any sleepless nights as he prepares for an extended off-season, it could be significant when he gets to Australia for the opening Grand Slam of the the new year.

Djokovic will head to Melbourne looking to win a remarkable 11th Australian Open title in January and given his waning motivation to compete on the tour, there has to be a good chance that this will be his final attempt to win the major he has won more than any other.

If he is ranked at No 9 for the Australian Open, he could face world No 1 Jannik Sinner in the fourth round of the competition.

Sinner ended Djokovic’s Australian Open hopes in the semi-finals last year, but playing the Italian earlier in the competition could be a big worry for Djokovic, especially if he does not play a warm-up tournament and is looking for match practice in the early rounds in Melbourne.

World No 2 Alcaraz could also be a potential opponent for Djokovic in the fourth round if he is seeded ninth and he could also face any member of the ATP Tour’s top eight.

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While Djokovic will back himself to overcome any challenge in a Grand Slam, Sinner and Alcaraz have proved they are a step ahead of the veteran great over the last year and play three players ranked in the top eight would be a major test.

Djokovic could face a route to the finalo that looks something like this in Melbourne; Sinner in round four, Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals, Alexander Zverev in the semi-finals and Carlos Alcaraz in the final.

Even for a great who has achieved so much, that kind of run may be a step too far for him, but super-coach Patrick Mouratoglou has insisted Djokovic can still add to his major collection.

Speaking exclusively to Tennis365 ahead of the UTS Grand Final in London in December, Serena Williams’ former coach suggested writing off the all-time greats is a dangerous game.

“I think he had a very bad year, but it came after an incredible year,” Mouratoglou told Tennis365.

“Let’s not forget that only last year he won three Grand Slams and played in the final of the other. So we shouldn’t forget that was just one year ago, not ten years ago, just one year ago.

“He won the Olympics which was his main focus this year, beating Carlos in the final, playing fantastic tennis, so he is not far away.

“I think he can beat them (Sinner and Alcaraz). It’s very hard, there was a lot of margin before, but now there is none.

“When he plays them I think anyone can win, but I don’t think he’s far behind. I think he can still win Grand Slams, I’m sure about it.”

Mouratoglou, who will oversee the UTS Grand Final in London next month, believes motivation is now Djokovic’s biggest opponent in the final chapters of his record-breaking tennis story.

“For Novak, it’s only about his motivation,” added Mouratoglou.

“I understand that he struggles with it at the moment because all his career was about beating the other two and being better than them, that was the fight of his life in tennis and he won.

“So to keep his motivation now, it’s very difficult. ow that Rafa is retiring, the whole year that was the problem, that’s how I see it, I don’t know if I’m right, but this year for Novak was tough.

“This is because from the start of the season, you could see that Rafa was struggling so much and probably came to his mind, well I won.

“When you fight all your life for something and you finally get it, where do you find the motivation?

“So I hope this difficult year is something he will be able to use to feed his motivation and come back next year as good as the previous one because then we’ll have a fight between those three that is going to be unbelievable and I want to see it.”

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